Analistul american al CSIS Janusz Bugajski: “ESTE NEVOIE DE TRUPE NATO IN MOLDOVA” *
AL TREILEA an de Razboi Rece la Marea Neagra

By Steven Woehrel, Specialist in European Affairs, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division
This short report provides information and analysis on Moldova, including its
political and economic situation, foreign policy, and on U.S. policy toward Moldova.
This report will be updated as events warrant.
Political Situation
Although a small country, Moldova has been of interest to U.S. policymakers due
to its position between NATO and EU member Romania and strategic Ukraine. In
addition, some experts have expressed concern about alleged Russian efforts to extend
its hegemony over Moldova through various methods, including a troop presence,
manipulation of Moldova’s relationship with its breakaway Transnistria region, and
energy supplies and other trading links. Moldova’s political and economic weakness has
made it a source of organized criminal activity of concern to U.S. policymakers, including
trafficking in persons and weapons.
Moldova is a parliamentary democracy that has held largely free and fair elections
since achieving independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. In the most recent
parliamentary elections on March 6, 2005, the Communist Party of Moldova (CPM) won
a majority of 56 seats in the 101-seat parliament. The Democratic Moldova Bloc (DMB),
an alliance of small centrist groups, won 34 seats. The nationalist and pro-Romanian
Christian Democratic Popular Party won 11 seats. Observers from the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) said that the vote was carried out generally
in line with international standards, but they criticized the election campaign for biased
electronic media coverage, misuse of government resources in favor of the CPM, and
harassment of opposition candidates and non-governmental organizations.
On April 4, 2005, Vladimir Voronin was reelected as President by the parliament.
Voronin gathered support not only from his own Communist Party, but also from the
center-right Christian Democratic Popular Party, and the Social Liberals, once part of the
Democratic Moldova Bloc. Local elections in June 2007 led to substantial victories for
the opposition, including the election of a 28-year-old human rights activist as mayor of
the capital, Chisinau. While support for the government appears to be declining, the Communists still retain strong support among the elderly and in rural areas. The next
parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2009.
Transnistria.
Conflict between
Moldovan forces and those of the
breakaway “Dniestr Republic†(a
separatist entity proclaimed in 1990 by
ethnic Russian local officials in the
Transnistria region of Moldova) erupted
in March 1992. Over 300 people died in
the violence. A cease-fire was declared
in July 1992 that provided for Russian,
“Dniestr Republic,†and Moldovan
peacekeepers to patrol a “security zoneâ€
between the two regions. Each of the
peacekeeping contingents have roughly
400 personnel. They are overseen by a
Joint Control Commission, which
includes the three sides, as well as the
OSCE as an observer.
The causes of the conflict are
complex, involving ethnic factors and,
above all, maneuvering for power and
wealth among elite groups. Ethnic
Russians and Ukrainians together make
up 51% of Transnistria’s population of
about 650,000, while Moldovans are the
single largest ethnic group, at 40%.
Many analysts are convinced that a key
factor obstructing a settlement is the personal interests of the leaders of the “Dniestr
Republic†and associates in Moldova, Russia and Ukraine, who control the region’s
economy. They also allegedly profit from illegal activities that take place in Transnistria,
such as smuggling and human trafficking. The 2006 State Department human rights
report sharply criticized the “poor†human rights record of the “Dniestr Republic,†noting
its record of rigged elections, harassment of political opponents, independent media, many
religious groups, and Romanian-speakers.
Negotiations over the degree of autonomy to be accorded the Transnistria region
within Moldova have been stalled for many years.(1) The two sides have negotiated over
Transnistria’s status with the mediation of Russia, Ukraine and OSCE. In 2005, at the
urging of Ukraine and Moldova, the United States and the European Union joined the
talks as observers. This process resulted in proposals for a federal Moldova, in which
Transnistria would have great autonomy. Nevertheless, Transnistrian leaders, apparently
satisfied with the present state of affairs, blocked any agreement. In September 2006,
Transnistria held a referendum on independence and union with Russia, which passed
with 97% of the vote.
While stopping short of openly advocating independence for Transnistria, Russian
officials have pointed to the possible independence of Kosovo from Serbia as a precedent
for Transnistria. Russia has provided financial support to Transnistria, including grants
and loans as well as subsidized energy. In return, Russian firms have received stakes in
Transnistrian businesses.(2) On the other hand, analysts say Russian leaders may be
disenchanted with Transnistria “President†Igor Smirnov, particularly after he refused in
2007 to repay debts owed to the Russian state-owned natural gas firm Gazprom for
natural gas supplies. However, if Moscow moves against Smirnov, it would likely be to
substitute a more pliable replacement, not to abandon support for the separatist cause
itself.
Economy
According to the World Bank, Moldova’s per capita Gross National Income was
$960 in 2005, the lowest in Europe. Living standards are poor for the great majority of
Moldovans, particularly in rural areas. Poverty is a significant problem; 29% of the
population live in poverty, according to the World Bank. Many Moldovans are dependent
on remittances from the estimated 600,000 Moldovans working abroad, out of a total
Moldovan population (excluding Transnistria) of 3.2 million. Remittances amount to
about one-third of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. Moldova’s main natural
resource is its rich soil. Agriculture, especially fruit, wine and tobacco, plays a vital role
in Moldova’s economy. Most of Moldova’s industry is located in Transnistria, and is not
counted in Moldovan government statistics. Moldova’s lack of control over its borders
has severely hampered its ability to collect customs revenue.
Moldova has had mixed success in economic reform. It has succeeded in achieving
a measure of macroeconomic stability, including the stabilization of Moldova’s national
currency, the Leu. Moldova’s small economy is highly vulnerable to external shocks.
Moldova has privatized its small and medium-sized business sector, and it has had
success in privatizing agricultural land. The sale of large firms has been more difficult and
foreign investment in Moldova is low. Key problems include poor governance, a weak
judiciary, and corruption.
Foreign Policy
Perhaps Moldova’s most important foreign policy relationship is with Russia. Most
of Moldova’s exports go to Russia, and over 90% of its energy imports come from Russia.
Moldova has accumulated large debts to Russian energy firms. Some analysts charge that
Russia has used negotiations over Transnistria to expand its political leverage over the
country and to block any Moldovan moves toward Euro-Atlantic integration. The
Transnistria issue is complicated by the continued presence of about 1,500 Russian troops
in the breakaway region (including the approximately 400-person peacekeeping
contingent in the security zone), as well as huge stockpiles of weapons and ammunition.
Russia has flatly refused to honor commitments it made at the 1999 OSCE summit in
Istanbul to withdraw its forces from Moldova. Russian leaders have also attempted to
condition the withdrawal of Russian troops on the resolution of Transnistria’s status.
Both Moldovan and Russian officials agree that the tons of munitions in Transnistria
must be removed or destroyed before the Russian troops pull out, in order to prevent the
weapons from falling into the hands of criminals, terrorists and other undesirable groups.
However, Russian officials maintained that they could not withdraw the munitions
without the permission of the Transnistria authorities, who claim that the weaponry is
their “property.†A few trainloads of munitions were withdrawn to Russia in 2003 (under
OSCE monitoring and with the use of an OSCE trust fund), but the effort stopped in late
2003 after the collapse of Russian-mediated talks on Transnistria’s future.
Since the failure of a Russian-brokered draft agreement to solve the Transnistria
problem in 2003, President Voronin advocated reorienting Moldovan foreign policy away
from Russia and closer to the West. Moldova does not seek NATO membership but
participates in Partnership for Peace (PFP) exercises and favors increased cooperation
with NATO.
Moldova currently has a partnership and cooperation agreement with the European
Union (EU), which provides for cooperation in a wide variety of spheres and holds out
the possibility of an eventual free trade agreement. Moldova signed an Action Plan with
the EU in 2005 in the context of the EU’s European Neighborhood policy. The EU plans
to provide 209.7 Euro ($310 million) in aid to Moldova between 2007 and 2010, a
substantial sum for a small country. The EU has also granted Moldova trade preferences
that will permit it to sell more of its wine and agricultural goods to the EU, perhaps
enabling it to reduce its dependence on the Russian market. Since 2005, an EU mission
has helped to monitor Moldova’s Transnistria border with Ukraine, in an effort to deter
smuggling. Moldova hopes to become a candidate for EU membership, although the EU
is unlikely to accept Moldova as a candidate in the foreseeable future, due to Moldova’s
poverty and the EU’s own internal challenges.
On January 1, 2006, Gazprom cut off natural gas supplies to Moldova, after
Moldova rejected Gazprom’s demand for a doubling of the price Moldova pays for natural
gas. Gazprom restored supplies on January 17, in exchange for a price increase from $60
per 1,000 cubic meters to $110. Moldova also agreed to give Gazprom, already the
majority shareholder, a higher equity stake in Moldovagaz, which controls Moldova’s
natural gas pipelines and other infrastructure. Gazprom is also seeking to complete the
purchase of Transnistria’s stake in Moldovagaz. Gazprom increased the price of its gas
to Moldova to $170 in 2007. It is planned that the price will be gradually increased until
it reaches the price paid by EU member states in 2011. Some analysts charge that Russia
is using energy supplies and other trade as weapons to pressure Moldova to drop its pro-
Western orientation and to turn its energy infrastructure over to Moscow. Gazprom is
interested in securing Moldova’s domestic power plants, as payment for gas debts. In
2005, Russia also restricted wine and other agricultural imports from Moldova, allegedly
over health concerns, dealing a very heavy blow to the country’s economy. Russia finally
permitted Moldovan wine imports again in November 2007, but Moldova’s wine exports
remain sharply reduced from former levels.
Moldova’s ties with Romania are a sensitive issue in both countries. Many
Romanians consider Moldovans in fact to be Romanians, and support the eventual
unification of the two countries. Although most independent experts consider the
“Moldovan language†to be Romanian, the issue is a matter of political controversy in
Moldova. After the incorporation of Moldova into the Soviet Union during World War
II, Soviet authorities promoted the idea of a separate Moldovan language (using the
Cyrillic rather than the Latin script), as a means of countering possible secessionist ideas.
Those favoring the term “Moldovan†tend to accept the Soviet legacy in Moldova, and
favor Moldova’s independence or close ties with Russia. Many persons favoring the term
“Romanian†support union with Romania. In a 1994 referendum, over 90% of
Moldovans rejected unification with Romania. However, it is possible that more
inhabitants of this impoverished country may begin to favor union with Romania now that
Bucharest is a member of the EU. Romania’s entry into the EU led to an avalanche of
Moldovan applications to Romania for dual Romanian-Moldovan citizenship; estimates
range up to 800,000 persons.
Read more: U.S. Policy





Harta Daciei Moderne – Romania
Dacia in vremea lui Burebista
Romania la 1655
Europa la 1848
Harta etnica a Europei – 1885
Romania Mare – Nationalitati – 1910-1912
Romania Mare – Harta etnica la 1930
Romania Mare 1918-1940 